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As Japan pours billions into defense dreaming of arms-led prosperity, many warn history’s darkest chapters offer a sobering lesson_我的网站

A |     　　中国商业航天企业已具备面向海外客户提供交付、运营、教学一体化的完整解决方案能力。    Editor's Note:
August 15 marked the 81st anniversary of Japan's announcement of its unconditional surrender. Eighty-one years on, Japan, the defeated aggressor in World War II (WWII), has not only failed to conduct a thorough reckoning with its wartime aggression, but has instead intensified its drive to expand military power. In its newly released 2026 Defense White Paper on August 4, Japan says that "defense business not only possesses a high degree of public value by directly contributing to the protection of citizens' lives, but also contributes to Japan's economic growth through ripple effects into the civilian sector."
This line of argument, along with Japan's defense policies in recent years, in fact reflects a form of "military Keynesianism" - the use of military spending as a means to stimulate overall economic development. However, this logic of "trying to boost the economy through military buildup" has faced widespread skepticism inside Japan. Some scholars have also warned that Japan pursued a similar policy during WWII, which led to the expansion of the military-industrial complex (MIC) and, in objective terms, fueled the scale of Japan's war of aggression, bringing profound suffering to the peoples of Asia and the world.

    People take part in a protest march in Tokyo, opposing politicians making ritual offerings to or visiting the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, on August 15, 2026. Photo: cnsphoto
Pursuing a military Keynesian path
Japan's 2026 Defense White Paper, at 598 pages, has set a record as the longest in history. More alarming than its length, however, is the document's first-ever explicit definition of the development of the defense industry as an effective means of promoting "economic growth." 
"The white paper 'stresses that investment in defense benefits the wider economy and people's lives,' according to a Defense Ministry presentation document," reported Reuters on August 4. "That message aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's broader use of strategic state spending in an effort to drive economic growth," Reuters commented. Previously, The Asahi Shimbun warned in an opinion piece that this entanglement of defense buildup with economic policy will, over time, slide into "military Keynesianism."
"Military Keynesianism" refers to the use of military spending as a tool to stimulate overall economic development. Since the Takaichi administration took office, Japan has been expanding its domestic defense market through year-on-year increases in the defense budget, while at the same time opening up international sales channels for defense production by relaxing export controls - thereby systematically pursuing a military Keynesian path.
In fiscal 2026, Japan's defense budget for the first time exceeded 9 trillion yen ($56.5 billion). Its defense-related spending has already reached 2 percent of GDP, according to The Japan Times. This not only means Japan's defense budget has risen for 14 consecutive years, but also indicates that the government is using fiscal stimulus to artificially create a large and relatively stable "arms market." The resulting closed-loop logic is clear: the government increases defense spending to expand procurement; defense companies receive orders and scale up production; and, through industrial-chain spillovers, related industries also expand output.
As Japan's new Defense White Paper says, higher defense expenditures will not only significantly increase orders in the defense industry, but also reinforce the defense production base through measures such as introducing mechanisms to assess corporate efforts and calculate appropriate profits for companies. These measures, the paper claims, are expected to generate economic ripple effects, "as well as technological ripple effects into the civilian sector." 
What is even more alarming is that Japan is systematically removing the institutional barriers to the growth of its defense industry. 
One long-standing challenge in postwar Japan has been the limited size of its domestic defense market and restrictions on arms exports, which have kept defense firms' profits relatively low and prompted some major companies to withdraw from parts of the military supply business, observers pointed out.
In 2022, however, Japan elevated the defense industry to a national strategic priority in its three key security documents, National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program. In 2023, it enacted the Act on Enhancing Defense Production and Technology Bases, allowing the government to sustain and reinforce defense manufacturing through subsidies, capital investment and other measures. And in April this year, the Takaichi administration formally lifted the ban on exports of lethal weapons, fully opening the door for Japan's defense industry to enter global markets.
Together, these moves show that Japan is no longer content with relying on its Self-Defense Forces' limited procurement needs. It seeks to turn itself into a global arms supplier. This will inevitably intensify the regional arms race and seriously destabilize the security landscape in East Asia, warned some experts reached by the Global Times.
Of particular concern is that the focus of Japan's military Keynesianism has shifted from traditional weapons such as guns and artillery, to high-tech fields including artificial intelligence (AI) and drones, with an explicit emphasis on civil-military integration. Japan's new Defense White Paper places special emphasis on AI and unmanned systems, which are expected to become central issues in the year-end revision of its three key security documents.
Widespread criticism and concern
Japan's bid to jolt economic growth through higher military spending amounts to little more than a wishful gamble that "guns for butter" can be turned on its head. But when the fiscal question of "where will the money come from?" collides with public anxiety over "where is people's livelihood headed?", voices from international media outlets to Japanese scholars, lawmakers and ordinary citizens alike, are warning that the narrative of arms-led prosperity is not only unlikely to work, but could also drag Japan's economy into dangerous territory, observers noted.
Japan's fiscal expenditure faces "competing demands on the public purse," "but Takaichi has yet to explain clearly how she would pay for a further expansion without adding pressure on Japan's already stretched public finances," Reuters said on August 4.
In a Japanese-language editorial piece on August 8, The Asahi Shimbun pushed the debate further toward livelihoods, saying that military expansion would place a direct strain on the daily lives of Japanese people. The piece also cited a United Nations study saying that reallocating the same resources to education and healthcare rather than the military could generate more jobs. The International Monetary Fund has also warned that rising defense spending may, in the medium term, increase economic vulnerabilities, including through wider fiscal deficits, it said. 
 Opposition within Japan's academic circles runs equally fierce. Yuko Tanaka, a professor emeritus at Hosei University, argues the Takaichi administration's military buildup policies are driving Japan's economy toward collapse. The continuous depreciation of the yen and climbing government bond yields have rendered its "responsible proactive fiscal policies" unsustainable in the eyes of markets. If military expansion takes precedence over people's livelihoods, Japan's economy will fall into prolonged stagnation and recession, culminating in bankruptcy, Tanaka told the Global Times. 
Strong criticism also echoes across Japan's political arena. House of Representatives member Joji Yamamoto accused the Takaichi administration of doubling defense spending and lifting bans on weapons exports, while shifting healthcare costs onto patients and eroding elderly care systems. If left unchecked, Japan will gradually turn into a nation sustained by the arms trade, seriously violating people's right to subsistence guaranteed by law, Yamamoto told the Global Times. 
A risky gamble

Military Keynesianism is not only unlikely to sustain long-term economic growth in Japan, but also carries hidden security risks. Koji Sonoda, deputy editor at The Asahi Shimbun's Political News Section, recently cautioned that if defense budget expansion, initially justified by a deteriorating security environment, comes instead to serve the goal of economic growth through industrial promotion, the risk grows that spending will lose any effective restraint. 
History has already proven this point. The global economic depression of 1929 triggered the Showa Depression in Japan, pushing the country's economy to the brink of collapse. At the time, rather than pursuing structural reforms, Japan's political and military leadership shifted the national economy onto a wartime footing, using military spending to boost demand and mask unemployment.
Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that in 1932, Korekiyo Takahashi, Japan's then Finance Minister, rolled out stimulus policies including yen depreciation and expanded fiscal outlays. Massive military spending paired with public works projects lifted domestic demand and enabled Japan to recover from the recession earlier than many nations. Takahashi became known as "Japan's Keynes."
However, the prosperity driven by fiscal deficits and military-industrial expansion was ultimately a shortsighted fix. Meng pointed out that, first, while wartime demand boosted Japan's heavy chemical and weapons manufacturing sectors to some extent, most military output was removed from the social reproduction cycle and constituted sheer waste. Second, heavy chemical industries relied heavily on resources such as oil, which Japan lacked domestically. This created a vicious cycle: military demand expanded heavy industrial capacity; that expansion increased Japan's dependence on overseas resources and markets; rising resource needs drove further military expansion to secure supply chains; and that expansion in turn required even more defense spending, further militarizing the economy. Finally, a coalition of interest formed among heavy industrial capitalists, emerging zaibatsu and the military. Military adventurism was no longer driven solely by the armed forces, but was backed by industrial and financial power.
    People hold placards reading "No war" and "Stop constitutional revision, military expansion" during the Grand Constitution Rally 2026 to mark Constitution Memorial Day in Tokyo on May 3, 2026. Photo: vcgOnce the narrative that "military demand brings prosperity" gained mainstream acceptance, cutting military spending became a political taboo. Takahashi later sought to rein in military budgets and was assassinated in the February 26 Incident of 1936. His successor as finance minister, Eiichi Baba, treated military expansion as a long-term necessity. After the Lugou Bridge Incident in 1937, Japan enacted the National Mobilization Law in 1938, ushering in a full wartime system. "History shows the defense industry is never a silver bullet for economic prosperity," Meng said. Growth driven by arms expansion only leads to economic distortion, depletion of national strength and eventual self-destruction, he said. 
Currently, many Japanese citizens have recognized the dangers of the Takaichi administration's policies and taken to the streets to protest. 
Kazuo Adachi, a sexagenarian, told the Global Times in Japan that behind the administration's claim that the defense industry fuels growth lies the profit motive of the military-industrial complex. From policy deregulation launched under the Abe administration to accelerated implementation under the Takaichi administration, the path of military expansion catering to arms capital is akin to poison, fraught with alarming risks.
Marin Toyosu, a member of Japan's Generation Z, said the Takaichi administration's aggressive push for war preparedness essentially hides a self-serving agenda under the slogan of a "virtuous cycle between security and the economy." It abandons vulnerable groups to benefit a small circle of arms capitalists and represents an administration bent on stoking conflict. 
"This military expansion agenda harms Japanese citizens and endangers people across the world," she noted.
Tatara Satoshi, an anti-war activist, pointed out that the Takaichi administration hypes up the "China threat" to justify military buildup while pushing the flawed argument that the defense industry can boost the economy. 
This does not reflect the genuine aspirations of Japanese society or ordinary citizens. "Japanese people do not want war with China. They should unite to firmly oppose efforts to advance military expansion by stoking tensions and overstating supposed economic benefits," he said.
Global Times
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B |
　　3连板热门股半年报继续亏损　　8月25日，3连板热门股楚天龙（003040）公布2026年半年报，公司营业收入为3.19亿元，同比下降30.2%；归母净利润自去年同期亏损3977万元变为亏损6212万元，亏损额进一步扩大。　　公司在2026年半年度报告中提到，主营业务面临供需两端的双重经营压力，经营业绩出现亏损。

C | 受市场竞争加剧影响，公司部分嵌入式安全产品的价格及数量下降，导致营业收入同比下滑。同时，全球半导体原材料价格持续上涨、晶圆制造及封装测试环节成本不断攀升，导致营业成本降幅低于营业收入降幅，公司综合毛利率呈下降趋势。　　我国商业航天首次整星出口东南亚　　北京时间8月25日11时21分，长征六号丙遥一运载火箭在太原卫星发射中心发射升空，将中科卫星14星、中科卫星15星、银河航天灵知09泰国立方星等7颗卫星顺利送入预定轨道。　　其中，由北京商业航天企业银河航天（北京）科技集团股份有限公司（简称“银河航天”）抓总研制的灵知09泰国立方星，是我国商业航天企业首次面向东南亚国家完成整星研制、发射及在轨交付。　　银河航天表示，这也是银河航天首次完成整星及地面系统出口并在“一带一路”共建国家落地应用，证明了中国商业航天企业已具备面向海外客户提供交付、运营、教学一体化的完整解决方案能力。　　华西证券表示，我国火箭、卫星产业链条完整，商业航天协作切入路径清晰，随着火箭可回收技术成熟、火箭发射成本优化，行业在星座组网需求与终端消费路径开拓下将迎来快速增长阶段，产业链上下游企业有望整体受益。　　中国银河证券表示，2027年～2028年我国商业航天有望进入批量首飞与初步复用阶段；2029年民商龙头进入盈利兑现窗口，产业链制造端景气度预期大幅提升，短期聚焦卫星制造领域。　　绩优商业航天概念股出炉　　据证券时报·数据宝统计，商业航天概念股8月以来股价平均上涨7.46%，蓝盾光电的股价涨幅居首，月内累计上涨180.9%。公司与星思半导体签署战略合作协议，双方围绕多个方向展开协同布局，合作内容涵盖相控阵天线、5G以及卫星通信模块的研发制造与商业化探索，同时推进无线传输相关解决方案的开发工作。

D | 　　鸿远电子在近期获得82家机构调研，公司表示，面向商业化航天与相控阵雷达的SiP外壳已实现稳定批量供货。　　蜀道装备在机构调研活动中表示，公司将通过“产业并购+自主投资+基金孵化”多措并举，探索成为商业航天燃料综合服务商，实现从“卖设备”向“供气+服务”的模式升级。　　结合业绩预告下限、快报、半年报的数据来看，中国卫星、星网宇达、航天彩虹上半年业绩扭亏。中航西飞、菲利华、火炬电子的上半年净利润规模居前，均超2亿元。　　业绩增幅方面，8只概念股上半年净利润同比增幅均超100%，北斗星通、博云新材、中天火箭、蜀道装备的净利润增幅居前，分别同比增长2368.27%、1911.60%、329.31%、235.11%。（文章来源：数据宝）。

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Published on:13:06:37